An AI-Driven Machine Learning Framework For Accurate Global Solar Radiation Prediction Using Satellite Imagery

The accurate forecasting of Daily Global Solar Radiation (DGSR) is a vital tool in renewable energy planning, climate research, and environmental monitoring. This paper presents a proposal for utilizing machine learning to enhance the estimation of DGSR by using satellite image data. This method utilizes reflectance values obtained from Metaset Second Generation (MSG) satellite images across multiple spectral channels and relies on ground-based meteorological parameters rather than traditional models. Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) are two supervised machine learning regression models that are utilized for forecasting solar radiation. How do they compare and contrast? The Gharda radiometric station in Algeria has collected measurable solar radiation data for four years (2014-2017) using inputs from satellite imagery, which are then combined to create the dataset. To evaluate these models, statistical performance metrics such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Normalized RMSEA (NRMSE) and MAE (Made Absolute Percentage Error), MBE (Merck-McGregor), and correlation coefficient (R) are utilized. Prediction accuracy is significantly influenced by the number and combination of satellite input parameters, as demonstrated by experimental data. Compared to the SVM, the ANN model had a better RMSE of 21221. The NRMSE, MAPE, and MBE have all been reported with 3.46%, 2.85%, 7.26, etc, respectively. Wh/m2. A 0.99 correlation coefficient is associated with a Wh/m2 value.