Experiment-Driven Gaussian Process Surrogate Modeling and Bayesian Optimization for Multi-Objective Injection Molding

Injection molding process optimization has predominantly relied on simulation-generated data, which cannot capture machine-specific variability and stochastic process noise inherent in real manufacturing environments. This paper presents an experiment-driven machine learning framework for multi-objective optimization of injection molding process parameters targeting volumetric shrinkage, warpage, cycle time, and part weight. Physical experiments were conducted on an industrial injection molding machine using high-density polyethylene with a face-centered central composite design. Systematic benchmarking of four machine learning algorithms under identical cross-validation protocols identified Gaussian process regression as the best-performing surrogate model for the majority of quality metrics, while warpage prediction remained challenging across all algorithms due to its complex thermo-mechanical origins. Permutation-based feature importance analysis established a clear parameter hierarchy, identifying holding time as the dominant factor governing multiple quality responses. Constrained Bayesian optimization with progressive constraint tightening was employed to identify optimal parameter sets and fundamental process capability boundaries. The resulting parameter configurations were validated against a held-out test set. This work demonstrates that rigorous, data-driven optimization using exclusively experimental data provides a viable and practically achievable alternative to simulation-based approaches, contributing to experiment-centric smart manufacturing in polymer processing.