Abstract We present a falsifiable, non-equilibrium framework for black hole dynamics based on the principle of dynamic imbalance (α ≠ 1), where α ≡ Φₒut / Φᵢn is the ratio of emission to absorption rates. We derive α from first principles using Bogoliubov coefficients in curved spacetime and extend the Clausius relation to irreversible horizon thermodynamics. This provides a first-principles derivation of the Bekenstein-Hawking Area Law as the equilibrium (α → 1) limit of a more general entropy functional, with α < 1 dynamics generating sub-leading logarithmic corrections. Applying this framework to astrophysical quasars, we show that α oscillates around unity due to feedback-regulated accretion. This yields three quantitative, falsifiable predictions: (1) quasar light curves exhibit 1/f flicker noise with a specific scaling exponent linked to the Eddington ratio; (2) the variance of α decreases with black hole mass, providing a homeostatic signature; and (3) the effective temperature of Hawking radiation is suppressed by a factor f (α) during high-accretion phases. We validate the framework against a preliminary sample of AGN variability data and outline observational protocols for next-generation surveys. Appendices provide a complete Python implementation of the stochastic model and a detailed empirical validation protocol. Keywords: black hole thermodynamics, non-equilibrium dynamics, quasar variability, AGN feedback, Bekenstein-Hawking entropy, α<1 framework, GTRS, CDR cycle
Smith et al. (2026) studied this question.