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January 5, 2017BMJ662 citationsOpen Access

A guide to systematic review and meta-analysis of prediction model performance

TDThomas P. A. DebrayJDJohanna AAG DamenKSKym I E Snell

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Abstract

Validation of prediction models is highly recommended and increasingly common in the literature. A systematic review of validation studies is therefore helpful, with meta-analysis needed to summarise the predictive performance of the model being validated across different settings and populations. This article provides guidance for researchers systematically reviewing and meta-analysing the existing evidence on a specific prediction model, discusses good practice when quantitatively summarising the predictive performance of the model across studies, and provides recommendations for interpreting meta-analysis estimates of model performance. We present key steps of the meta-analysis and illustrate each step in an example review, by summarising the discrimination and calibration performance of the EuroSCORE for predicting operative mortality in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting.

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Debray et al. (2017) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69effa7dbce9831ba4f73b9fhttps://doi.org/10.1136/bmj.i6460
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