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March 19, 2026Open Access

Macroeconomic Fragility: A Structural Index of System Stress from War, Debt, and Policy Limits (1945–2025)

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Authors

LCLarry Lim Kheng Cheong

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Overview

This research introduces a framework that measures economic stress in the U.S., indicating potential vulnerabilities.

Key Points

  • The study aims to create a Fragility Index that quantifies macroeconomic system stress by analyzing commitments versus policy space.
  • Constructed the Fragility Index using data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database.
  • Analyzed U.S. data from 1945 to 2025.
  • Performed statistical analysis to identify correlations with recession periods.
  • Investigated the impact of globalization and rising debt levels on fragility.
  • Elevated fragility aligns with times of increased macroeconomic vulnerability, particularly during recessions.
  • The Fragility Index correlates with notable periods of financial instability.
  • A potential regime shift since the mid-1990s indicates persistently elevated fragility levels.

Cite This Study

Larry Lim Kheng Cheong (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69bb92d1496e729e629805f2https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19068508
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