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April 16, 2026IET Intelligent Transport Systems0 citationsOpen Access

Spatiotemporal Resilience Assessment Method of Urban Rail Transit: An Improved Coupled Map Lattice Model Integrating Passenger Attrition and Transfer Behaviour

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YSYuanguang SunZLZitong LiBFBenxiang Feng

Key Points

  • The aim is to accurately assess the resilience of urban rail transit by considering passenger transfer and attrition behaviors during cascading failures.
  • Developed an improved coupled map lattice model integrating passenger behaviors and network dynamics
  • Utilized a dual-metric evaluation framework for assessing spatiotemporal resilience
  • Conducted a case study on the Tianjin urban rail transit network
  • Different disturbance intensities significantly affect network resilience, especially during peak hours
  • A critical disturbance threshold of R = 2.2 leads to large-scale failure
  • Stations with higher connectivity have a more significant impact on resilience than those with higher passenger volumes

Abstract

ABSTRACT Common environmental and operational interruptions can lead to station or line failures, which in turn trigger cascading failures in the urban rail transit network (URTN). However, most studies neglect the effects of passenger transfer and attrition behaviours on network resilience under cascading failures. As the primary service recipients of the URTN, passengers have a direct impact on network resilience. Thus, the omission of passenger attrition and transfer behaviour can lead to an overestimated impact of cascading failures. Therefore, this study proposes an improved coupled map lattice (CML) model that integrates passenger transfer and attrition behaviours, station risk resistance, and inter‐node coupling to capture the dynamic evolution of cascading failures. Then, a dual‐metric evaluation framework covering spatial and temporal characteristics is used to assess spatiotemporal resilience. A case study of the Tianjin URTN reveals that different attack strategies and disturbance intensities significantly influence resilience, particularly during morning peak hours, and a critical disturbance threshold of R = 2.2 can trigger large‐scale failure. Additionally, the resilience of the URTN is more significantly influenced by stations with higher connectivity than with higher passenger volume. The findings can provide crucial guidance for emergency planning, thus improving the stability of the URTN.

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Cite This Study

Sun et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e07e3b2f7e8953b7cbf4behttps://doi.org/10.1049/itr2.70181
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