Protectionism and agricultural vulnerability: quantitative assessment of the 2025 tariff shock

Purpose This study aims to simulate and quantify the effects of the 2025 tariff war on agricultural trade, focusing on key trading partners including China and other major international agricultural producers. Design/methodology/approach The authors mainly use the quantitative multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium trade model to quantify the economic consequences of the 2025 US tariff war. Findings In the unilateral scenario, US agricultural imports drop by 34.25% and exports by 18.63%, while domestic prices rise by 4.7%. Retaliation deepens the shock, reducing US exports by 25.93% and real income by 0.25%, with China and Canada facing steeper trade and welfare losses. In contrast, the negotiated tariff reduction scenario alleviates these disruptions: Canada's real income improves from −0.58% to −0.45%, and its output loss narrows from −0.91% to −0.3%. China, Japan and Vietnam also benefit, highlighting the potential of partial tariff rollback to restore trade and ease global adjustment pressures. Originality/value This study considers three distinct policy scenarios: unilateral tariff increases, retaliation by trading partners and negotiated tariff reductions, which represent different phases of the trade conflict. The analysis is based on a multi-country and multi-sector general equilibrium model, using updated global input-output data that includes 192 economies and 133 sectors. The study contributes to the literature by addressing a recent and broad-based agricultural policy shock and offers systematic evidence on how large-scale tariff adjustments affect agricultural trade flows and economic outcomes across major producing countries.