Explaining Subnational Variations in India’s Pandemic Response: State Capacity, Covid-Contingency, or Partisan Federalism?

Abstract This study examines the role of state capacity, COVID-19 contingency, and partisan federalism in explaining variation in COVID-19 mortality and under-reporting across Indian states. A multiple linear regression reveals that better health infrastructure and welfare regimes reduce excess deaths and under-reporting. Human development, however, is paradoxically linked to higher mortality—likely due to older populations and greater mobility—though it correlates with greater reporting accuracy. However, affiliation with the center is positively associated with both excess deaths and under-reporting, contradicting expectations of improved coordination. Our qualitative analysis suggests that affiliated states were more likely to operate under tacit or imposed cooperation vis-à-vis the center and to adopt power-concentrating governance that constrained local responsiveness. In contrast, nonaffiliated states—less bound by centralized party incentives—tended to pursue power-sharing modes at the state level that enabled local responsiveness. Our findings underscore the importance of investing in health infrastructure, social welfare, and institutionalized shared-rule mechanisms.