Cold Waves in a Changing Climate: Characteristics, Trends, and Large‐Scale Drivers in Northern Europe and the Alps

ABSTRACT Cold waves continue to pose severe challenges to infrastructure, agriculture, ecosystems, and public health across Europe despite an overall warming trend driven by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of 84 boreal winters (November 1940–March 2024) using ERA5 reanalysis data to quantify changes in cold‐wave frequency, duration, and intensity within two climatically sensitive domains: northern Europe and the Alps. Despite regional variability in cold wave characteristics, we detect statistically significant declines in annual cold‐wave frequency (−0.33 to −0.36 events per decade), event durations (−0.14 to −0.19 days per decade), and warming of event anomalies (+0.11°C to +0.14°C per decade) in both regions. Dynamical attribution links these trends to shifts in large‐scale circulation. The ratio of cold waves associated with a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) reduces, but increases for positive NAO phases. Weather‐regime composites reveal spatial heterogeneity in large‐scale driver impacts, with regional factors such as topography further shaping cold‐wave characteristics. These findings highlight the coupled roles of thermodynamic warming and circulation variability in modulating European cold extremes.