Randomized trial shows persistent political polarization trends in US electorate, suggesting institutional dynamics matter.
Key Points
This research examines how minority political views persist in a polarized electorate and seeks to explain this phenomenon.
Applied the Recursion-Collapse-Recombination (RCR) framework to analyze political opinions.
Utilized RCR Model 2 for predictions on political polarization from 1994 to 2024, testing against social science models.
Conducted global sensitivity analysis to identify key factors influencing polarization variance.
RCR Model 2 predicts a bimodal distribution for 2024 with a raw bimodality index error of 0.117, significantly lower than competing models.
The global collapse strength parameter χ is identified as a major factor affecting polarization variance (S₁ = 0.29, 95% CI [0.16, 0.45]).
Forward projection indicates sustained bimodality persistence above BI = 0.5 through the 2028 election cycles, with a volatility spike at each election event.