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May 6, 2026Prace Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego we WrocławiuOpen Access

From r* to the Optimal Policy Rate: Identifying a Time-Varying Forward-Looking Taylor Rule for the National Bank of Poland

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Authors

PKPatryk Kołbyko

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Overview

Randomized trial identifies optimal policy rate path in Poland, suggesting dynamic Taylor rules enhance accuracy.

Key Points

  • This paper aims to identify a forward-looking Taylor-type rule with time-varying coefficients for Poland.
  • Estimated a Bayesian SVAR model on quarterly data from 2010-2024.
  • Used conditional forecasts for expected inflation and output gap.
  • Applied numerical optimization to derive the optimal policy-rate path.
  • The time-varying rule produced a lower EMPG than the classic Taylor rule.
  • Indicated a divergence after 2022 between conventional interest-rate and broader monetary policy gaps.

Cite This Study

Patryk Kołbyko (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69fada7f03f892aec9b1e45chttps://doi.org/10.15611/eada.2026.2.01
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