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April 16, 20260 citationsOpen Access

A Recurring Capture Pattern in Crime-Enabling Infrastructure Supply Systems: Why preventive intervention tends to be avoided at the point of supply

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HSHiromi Shimamoto

Key Points

  • The aim is to understand why preventive interventions are rarely implemented in crime-enabling infrastructure supply systems despite visible risk factors.
  • Documented a Recurring Capture Pattern (RCP) in supply systems
  • Analyzed institutional conditions and rational behavior in decision-making
  • Investigated feedback loops in criminal justice interventions and evaluation structures
  • Observed systematic avoidance of preventive measures at supply points
  • Identified convergence toward non-intervention, prioritizing contract completion
  • Described a structural dependence on post-incident enforcement rather than preventive strategies

Abstract

In many systems that provide essential services such as communication, financial accounts, housing, and payment instruments, preventive intervention at the point of supply tends to be systematically avoided, even when risk indicators are present. This paper documents a Recurring Capture Pattern (RCP) observed in crime-enabling infrastructure supply systems. Under the institutional condition of post-illegality intervention in criminal justice systems and supply-side evaluation structures that prioritize contract completion, individually rational behavior systematically converges not toward the prevention of criminal opportunities and reduction of harm but toward non-intervention in supply decisions and maximization of contract completion. As these behaviors accumulate, they alter the operational conditions of the system itself, resulting in the structural absence of preventive intervention at the supply stage and reinforcing the same behavioral convergence through a recursive institutional feedback loop. The pattern ultimately produces a system structurally dependent on post-incident enforcement and lacking preventive capacity at the infrastructure acquisition stage, indicating a structural misalignment between institutional objectives and rational behavioral adaptation. This paper analytically describes the structural relationship between institutional design and rational behavioral adaptation.

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Cite This Study

Hiromi Shimamoto (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e07dc72f7e8953b7cbec4ehttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19574352
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