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June 1, 1976Management Science994 citations

Scoring Rules for Continuous Probability Distributions

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JMJames MathesonRWRobert L. Winkler

Key Points

  • This research aims to develop and discuss scoring rules specifically designed for continuous probability distributions.
  • Developed various families of scoring rules for continuous probability distributions.
  • Discussed methodologies for the elicitation of subjective probabilities.
  • Emphasized the transition from discrete to continuous models.
  • Introduced new scoring rules that improve the accuracy of subjective probability assessment.
  • Demonstrated the applicability of these rules in inferential models and decision-making processes.

Abstract

Personal, or subjective, probabilities are used as inputs to many inferential and decision-making models, and various procedures have been developed for the elicitation of such probabilities. Included among these elicitation procedures are scoring rules, which involve the computation of a score based on the assessor's stated probabilities and on the event that actually occurs. The development of scoring rules has, in general, been restricted to the elicitation of discrete probability distributions. In this paper, families of scoring rules for the elicitation of continuous probability distributions are developed and discussed.

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Cite This Study

Matheson et al. (1976) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69ff7f2c4716aad0cc855e72https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.10.1087
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