Prediction of success in taekwondo based on psychophysiological testing results

Background and Study Aim. Predicting athletes’ success is an integral part of sports monitoring. It enables the improvement of training quality and the differentiation of athletes according to skill level. Among the factors determining success and their informational value, psychophysiological indicators occupy an important place. The aim of this study was to justify and develop a method for predicting success in taekwondo based on psychophysiological testing results. Material and Methods. The study included 80 taekwondo athletes divided into age and skill groups. Group 1: 16 children aged 11–12 years, beginners; Group 2: 32 boys aged 14–16 years, sub-elite; Group 3: 28 adults aged 19–22 years, elite. Testing was performed using an iPad-based battery consisting of three tests: choice reaction, reaction to a moving object, and Go/No-go reaction. The battery simulated combat situations typical for taekwondo. The prediction model was based on Wald’s sequential analysis with the calculation of predictive coefficients and informativeness for each indicator. Statistical analysis included descriptive statistics and Student’s t-test to assess group differences. Results. A predictive table comprising 11 indicators with informativeness ≥ 11.0 was created. Prediction involves assigning the corresponding coefficient to each result and summing until a decision threshold is reached. The threshold ±13 corresponds to a 95% probability (p < 0.05). Indicators with the highest informativeness were related to reaction time in the most complex stages of the tests, which required rapid adaptation to additional stimuli and changing conditions. Accuracy indicators from the Go/No-go test also contributed to the prediction, demonstrating the role of both speed and precision. The distribution of indicators across all three tests confirmed the multifactorial nature of taekwondo success prediction. Conclusions. The proposed methodology represents an objective and practical approach to forecasting competitive potential in taekwondo. It can be integrated into athlete selection systems and training monitoring programs, contributing to more effective talent identification and long-term performance development. The approach also offers the potential for adaptation to other combat sports that require rapid decision-making, high reaction speed, and precision under competitive conditions.