Baseline and early 18F-FDG PET/CT evaluations as predictors of progression-free survival in metastatic breast cancer patients treated with targeted anti-CDK therapy

Abstract Background Exploring the value of baseline and early 18 F-FDG PET/CT evaluations in prediction PFS in ER+/HER2- metastatic breast cancer patients treated with a cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor in combination with an endocrine therapy. Methods Sixty-six consecutive breast cancer patients who underwent a pre-therapeutic 18 F-FDG PET/CT and a second PET/CT within the first 6 months of treatment were retrospectively included. Metabolic tumour volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) and D max , which represents tumour dissemination and is defined as the distance between the two most distant lesions, were computed. The variation in these parameters between baseline and early evaluation PET as well as therapeutic evaluation using PERCIST were assessed as prognosticators of PFS at 18 months. Results The median follow-up was equal to 22.5 months. Thirty progressions occurred (45.4%). The average time to event was 17.8 ± 10.4 months. At baseline, D max was the only predictive metabolic parameter. Patients with a baseline D max ≤ 18.10 cm had a significantly better 18 m-PFS survival than the others: 69.2% (7.7%) versus 36.7% (8.8%), p = 0.017. There was no association between PERCIST evaluation and 18 m-PFS status ( p = 0.149) and there was no difference in 18 m-PFS status between patients classified as complete, partial metabolic responders or having stable metabolic disease. Conclusion Disease spread at baseline PET, as assessed by D max , is predictive of an event occurring within 18 months. In the absence of early metabolic progression, which occurs in 15% of patients, treatment should be continued regardless of the quality of the initial response to treatment.