Dynamic Carbon-Aware Scheduling for Electric Vehicle Fleets Using VMD-BSLO-CTL Forecasting and Multi-Objective MPC

Accurate perception of dynamic carbon intensity is a prerequisite for low-carbon demand-side response. However, traditional grid-average carbon factors lack the spatio-temporal granularity required for real-time regulation. To address this, this paper proposes a “Prediction-Optimization” closed-loop framework for electric vehicle (EV) fleets. First, a hybrid forecasting model (VMD-BSLO-CTL) is constructed. By integrating Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) with a CNN-Transformer-LSTM network optimized by the Blood-Sucking Leech Optimizer (BSLO), the model effectively captures multi-scale features. Validation on the UK National Grid dataset demonstrates its superior robustness against prediction horizon extension compared to state-of-the-art baselines. Second, a multi-objective Model Predictive Control (MPC) strategy is developed to guide EV charging. Applied to a real-world station-level scenario, the strategy navigates the trade-offs between user economy and grid stability. Simulation results show that the proposed framework simultaneously reduces economic costs by 4.17% and carbon emissions by 8.82%, while lowering the peak-valley difference by 6.46% and load variance by 11.34%. Finally, a cloud-edge collaborative deployment scheme indicates the engineering potential of the proposed approach for next-generation low-carbon energy management.