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February 14, 2026International Journal of Cancer0 citationsOpen Access

Age‐specific breast cancer incidence by subtype, TNM stage and screening status in Sweden 2008–2019 estimated with multiple imputation

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LGLeo GkekosKGK. GunnarsdóttirJIJunko Ishiguro

Key Points

  • To investigate how breast cancer incidence rates vary by subtype, TNM stage, and screening status across different age groups in women.
  • Retrieved population-based data from the Swedish National Quality Register for Breast Cancer (2008-2019)
  • Analyzed 89,322 invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed in women aged ≥18 years
  • Defined breast cancer subtypes by hormone receptors and grade
  • Utilized Poisson regression with multiple imputation to estimate incidence rates.
  • In women <40 years, 57% of tumors were luminal HER2, HER2 positive, and triple-negative breast cancer.
  • During screening ages (40-74), luminal A-like tumors accounted for 59%, with incidence increasing with age.
  • Screen-detection rates were 70% for luminal A-like tumors, compared to 45% for HER2 positive and 42% for TNBC.
  • At age 75, incidence rates declined for all subtypes but remained stable in older groups.
  • Stage I incidence increased in screening ages, especially for luminal A-like tumors, while stage II rates peaked in post-screening ages.

Abstract

Abstract Breast cancer incidence in women increases with age, but less is known about which subtypes contribute the most at different ages. We describe age‐specific breast cancer incidence rates in Sweden by subtype, TNM stage and screening status. Population‐based data were retrieved from the Swedish National Quality Register for Breast Cancer on 89,322 invasive breast cancer cases diagnosed 2008–2019 in women ≥18 years. Breast cancer subtypes were defined by estrogen and progesterone receptors, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), and grade. Poisson regression with multiple imputation estimated proportions and incidence rates. In women <40 years, the breast cancer incidence rates were low with luminal HER2, HER2 positive and triple‐negative breast cancer (TNBC) accounting for 57% of tumors. During screening ages (40–74 years), luminal A‐like tumors accounted for 59% and their incidence rate increased by age. Luminal A‐like tumors were more often screen‐detected (70%) compared to HER2 positive (45%) and TNBC (42%). At age 75 years, the incidence rates declined temporarily for all subtypes, and remained mostly stable in older ages, although the luminal A‐like rates did not reach the same levels as 40–74 years. In the screening ages, stage I incidence rates were increased, especially for the luminal A‐like subtype, while in post‐screening ages (≥75 years), stage II incidence rates were highest, especially for luminal B‐like, luminal HER2 and TNBC subtypes. Age‐specific incidence patterns vary by subtype and are all influenced by screening. Future diagnostic and preventive interventions should consider these age‐specific patterns.

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Cite This Study

Gkekos et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699011602ccff479cfe580cdhttps://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.70355
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