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March 3, 20260 citations

Aging, Intergenerational Distribution and Public Pension Systems

SJSvend E. Hougaard JensenSNSøren Bo Nielsen

Key Points

  • Average consumption declines due to demographic shocks like population aging and lower birth rates, impacting both short- and long-term economics.
  • As foreign assets accumulate, a strong connection is observed between demographic shifts and changes in consumption patterns within the economy.
  • The intergenerational distribution of adjustment burdens varies based on fixed rates of benefits, contributions, and income levels among pensioners and workers.
  • This approach provides insights into the macroeconomic challenges posed by an aging population, warranting nuanced policy discussions.

Abstract

"This paper develops an intertemporal simulation model capable of addressing the macroeconomic and distributional effects of demographic shocks in a small open economy. Two sources of population aging are examined, viz. lower birth rates and prolonged expected lifetimes at retirement age. Due to strong expectational effects, both shocks are found to change average consumption in a downward direction, in the short run as well as in the long run. This effect is matched by a strong net acquisition of foreign assets. Furthermore, it turns out that the intergenerational distribution of the burden of adjusting to an aging population is strongly dependent on whether the benefit rate, the contribution rate, or the relative non-capital income of pensioners and workers is held fixed."

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Cite This Study

Jensen et al. (1993) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69a75fe0c6e9836116a2c258
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