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March 7, 2026Science4 citationsOpen Access

Democratizing climate change mitigation pathways using modernized stabilization wedges

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NJNathan JohnsonISIain Staffell

Key Points

  • To modernize the stabilization wedge framework for climate change mitigation, enabling personalized decarbonization pathways.
  • Updated the stabilization wedge framework to identify 36 emission-mitigating strategies.
  • Quantified the scale of deployment needed for each strategy to mitigate emissions.
  • Assessed preferences of integrated assessment models to determine favored strategies.
  • Each strategy can potentially mitigate 4% of global emissions by 2050.
  • Over 6 trillion combinations of strategies can limit global warming to 1.5°C.
  • IAMs generally favor technological solutions over behavioral and nature-based approaches with limited agreement.

Abstract

Mitigating climate change requires broad societal buy-in. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) produce cost-optimal pathways, but these are complex and not easily customized to reflect individuals’ preferences. Twenty years ago, the stabilization wedge framework introduced a simpler way to discuss decarbonization. Here, we modernized this framework, identifying 36 strategies, each with the potential to mitigate 4% of global emissions by 2050, and quantified their required scale of deployment. People can build personalized decarbonization pathways by choosing a portfolio of these strategies, with more than 6 trillion combinations that are able to limit global warming to 1.5°C. We assessed which strategies IAMs favor and found that they prioritize technological over behavioral and nature-based solutions, with limited agreement. This framework empowers a general audience to construct and debate pathways, by making informed choices that reflect objectives beyond cost-optimization.

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Cite This Study

Johnson et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69abc0925af8044f7a4e9532https://doi.org/10.1126/science.adr2118
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