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March 10, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Infrastructure, Transport Costs, and Supply Chain Economics in Global Crude Oil Markets: A Seven-Country Comparative Analysis (2015-2025)

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LPLaszlo Pokorny

Key Points

  • This dissertation quantifies the impact of infrastructure on transport costs and competitive advantages in the global crude oil market.
  • Comparative analysis of seven oil-producing countries from 2015 to 2025.
  • Utilized cost-benefit analysis and spatial econometric techniques.
  • Conducted transport cost modeling and real options valuation for chokepoint risk assessment.
  • Analyzed data from multiple reputable energy statistical databases.
  • Canadian landlocked premium averaged $15.87 per barrel, exceeding the $10 hypothesized threshold.
  • Transport mode accounted for 89.5% of logistics cost variance.
  • Rail transport costs $15.67 per barrel, compared to pipeline transport at $5.75, and maritime at $1.88.
  • API gravity is the strongest predictor of price differentials with an R² value of 0.51.
  • Only 31% of Strait of Hormuz throughput can be bypassed if closure occurs.

Abstract

The global crude oil market depends critically on infrastructure systems that connect production sites to refineries and end markets, yet existing research has not adequately quantified how physical infrastructure endowments translate into measurable cost differentials and competitive advantages across producing countries. This dissertation addresses this gap through a comprehensive comparative analysis of infrastructure, transport costs, and supply chain economics across seven major oil-producing nations—the United States, Venezuela, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Canada—during the 2015-2025 period. Employing a multi-method quantitative approach integrating cost-benefit analysis, spatial econometric techniques, transport cost modeling, and real options valuation for chokepoint risk assessment, the study examines how pipeline networks, port facilities, refining capacity, and strategic chokepoints shape producer competitiveness. Data were drawn from the U. S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Agency, Canada Energy Regulator, OPEC statistical databases, and World Bank Logistics Performance Index. The analysis reveals that the Canadian "landlocked premium" averaged 15. 87 per barrel during the study period, substantially exceeding the hypothesized 10 per barrel threshold, with the discount reaching 26. 73 per barrel during the 2018 pipeline capacity crisis. Transport mode emerges as the dominant determinant of logistics costs, explaining 89. 5% of variance, with rail transport (15. 67/bbl) costing nearly three times pipeline transport (5. 75/bbl) and maritime VLCC tankers (1. 88/bbl) offering the lowest per-barrel costs for intercontinental trade. API gravity was identified as the strongest predictor of price differentials across countries (R² = 0. 51). The Strait of Hormuz handles 21% of global petroleum trade, with existing bypass infrastructure capable of accommodating only 31% of throughput in the event of closure. These findings demonstrate that infrastructure constraints impose substantial, persistent economic burdens on producing nations, with policy implications for energy security planning, infrastructure investment prioritization, and trade policy formulation in oil-dependent economies.

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Cite This Study

Laszlo Pokorny (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69af95ee70916d39fea4e01ahttps://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18906003
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