ABSTRACT This paper examines student admissions to higher education based on past performance, focusing on two measures: high school GPA and national exam scores. GPA is teacher‐assigned and based on repeated assessments, while these exams are externally graded, one‐off standardized tests. Using a nationwide dataset, we investigate how the relevance of these measures to the student's first‐year performance in a higher educational program, and how it varies with that program's selectivity. Negative‐binomial models show that a one‐standard‐deviation increase in GPA adds 5.9 first‐year ECTS (European Credit Transfer System), versus 1.8 for the exam. In the most selective programs, the difference in the effects is larger, partly because (i) score dispersion within elite cohorts is smaller and (ii) selective programs require a higher number of subject‐specific exams. We interpret these findings for potential revisions to admission policies, emphasising that high school GPA should not be regarded as the sole criterion for consideration.
Silva et al. (2026) studied this question.