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April 18, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Real-Time Burn to Learn: The Learning & Development Aggressive and Kamikaze Data Gathering Drone Swarms process, the statistical value of firefighter injury and life, and the upcoming shift in the firefighter recruitment pool as alternative scenarios, to be piloted e.g. in California, Colorado, and Texas

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MSMateusz Stasiak

Key Points

  • The aim is to evaluate the effectiveness and societal benefits of using drone swarms in wildfire scenarios to enhance firefighter safety.
  • Analyzes three wildfire scenarios: Wildland-Urban Interface, complex mountainous terrain, and flat grassland fires.
  • Proposes the use of 100+ drones in aggressive swarm formats for data collection during active fires.
  • Calculates societal cost benefits comparing drone losses to firefighter injuries or fatalities.
  • Demonstrates that the social return on investment significantly outweighs the cost of firefighter injuries when using drones.
  • Shows that deploying drones can provide valuable data while protecting human lives.
  • Indicates that even minimal drone deployment could yield vast societal benefits.

Abstract

The framework is organized around three primary wildfire scenarios active in the 2026 Northern Hemisphere summer season: (1) Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) fires, exemplified by California; (2) complex mountainous terrain fires, exemplified by Colorado; and (3) flat, wind-driven grassland fires, exemplified by Texas. These scenarios represent distinct fuel types, terrain geometries, and modeling challenges that together define the operational envelope for drone-assisted fire intelligence.The article also argues that the Social Return on Investment (SROI) of even minimal drone deployments in agressive, kamikaze swarm format to gather data during prototyping on scale (100+ drones) — including deliberate sacrifice of hardware in active fire zones i.e. to test taactics or gather data ranges — vastly exceeds the cost of a single firefighter injury or fatality when calculated against full societal cost: medical expenditure, lost productivity, and fiscal losses across a working life. Three iterative versions of the framework are presented, each adding operational, technical, or strategic depth. Would you rather lose a 5,000 dollars drone or a 5 million dollars firefighter? The answer will be obvious and is explained in the one chapter.

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Cite This Study

Mateusz Stasiak (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69e320cc40886becb653fed5https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19606622
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