Abstract Insectivorous, Afro‐Palearctic migrant birds provide cross‐border ecosystem services, but many are declining rapidly. The complex life cycle of migrant birds makes their conservation difficult, but understanding where they spend time during the breeding season can help indicate where those actions will be most effective. We used the spotted flycatcher ( Muscicapa striata ), a declining, Afro‐Palearctic, migratory insectivore and habitat generalist, as a model to examine how river density and land‐cover change were associated with loss and colonization during the breeding season of 2 × 2‐km national atlas survey areas from 1990 to 2010. Greater river density was associated with a lower probability of loss (odds ratio OR 0.8) between survey periods and a higher probability of colonization (OR 1.25). Loss was associated with increases in urban land cover (OR 1.17), and, unexpectedly, colonization was negatively associated with increases in woodland (OR 0.91) and standing freshwater (OR 0.94). Our results suggest that habitat creation is unlikely to provide sufficient benefits for some insectivorous birds within the time needed for population recovery. Thus, efforts should focus on the protection and improvement of established habitats. River density was strongly associated with the persistence of the spotted flycatcher, and this finding highlights that understanding the benefits of freshwater habitat for terrestrial species should be a priority for conservation management.
Eden et al. (2026) studied this question.