Hotspots adjacent to reserves: Spatial conflicts between waterbird hotspots and protected farmland in Poyang Lake Basin, China

Croplands adjacent to protected areas are increasingly used by waterbirds, intensifying potential conflicts between biodiversity conservation and agricultural production. However, the spatial dynamics and conservation implications of such overlaps remain poorly understood. Using MaxEnt modeling and Optimal Hot Spot Analysis, we assessed habitat suitability and hot spot dynamics of four waterbird families (Gruidae, Anatidae, Ciconiidae, and Ardeidae) in croplands surrounding National Nature Reserves in the Poyang Lake Basin, eastern China, from 2013 to 2023, and quantified their overlap with permanent basic farmland. Results show a 172% expansion of integrated waterbird hotspots, with Anatidae, Gruidae, and Ciconiidae each exhibiting hotspot expansions exceeding 200%. High suitability areas for these three families are predominantly concentrated in croplands surrounding National Nature Reserves, yet their distributions are becoming increasingly clustered and uneven. The spatio-temporal patterns among waterbird families can be interpreted as two inferred pathways of farmland use: an emergency, compensatory reliance by habitat specialists following wetland degradation, and a facultative use by more generalist taxa exploiting anthropogenic food resources relatively readily. Notably, 42% (227 km2) of persistent hotspots overlapped with permanent basic farmland, particularly in counties simultaneously prioritized for ecological conservation and agricultural intensification, revealing a clear spatial mismatch between conservation needs and rigid farmland protection policies. Species-specific responses to environmental drivers highlight differences in habitat specialization and sensitivity to human disturbance. Our findings underscore the need for basin-scale hydrological restoration, species-specific management of agricultural habitats, and spatially explicit compensation schemes that better align farmer livelihoods with wetland biodiversity conservation. This case provides transferable insights for managing human-waterbird conflicts in agricultural wetlands where static land-use policies intersect with dynamic ecological processes.