The Educational Gradient of Period Fertility in Europe. A Demographic Analysis Using EU-SILC Data.

This study examines the educational gradient of period fertility across Europe and identifies the educational groups and birth orders most affected by the fertility decline observed in many countries since the 2010s. Using harmonized age- and parity-specific fertility measures for three educational groups across 30 European countries from 2005 to 2020, we analyze how education-specific changes in fertility behavior contributed to shifts in overall fertility levels within a comparative framework. Our findings reveal that across Europe, fertility declines are driven primarily by reductions in birth intensities among highly educated women, followed by those with medium education, while low-educated women contribute comparatively little to overall changes. In several countries, simultaneous fertility declines among highly and medium-educated women have accelerated the overall downturn. The decline is associated not only with delayed childbearing but also with rising childlessness and an increasing prevalence of one-child families. Reductions in first births emerge as the main driver of falling fertility among the highly educated, whereas among medium-educated women, declining transitions to second births play a particularly important role. These trends are especially consequential given the growing share of women attaining higher education, which amplifies the demographic impact of fertility changes within this group. Although shifts in educational composition partially account for recent declines, most of the decrease reflects changing reproductive behavior within educational groups. The results point to the importance of structural factors in shaping the relationship between education and fertility. By providing a consistent and comparative dataset on education-specific period fertility across Europe, this study lays the groundwork for future research on the institutional and socio-economic determinants of fertility decline.