This paper examines how conflict, state fragility, and climate change intersect to compound disaster risk in the Arab region, drawing on field observations from across Libya, Morocco, Sudan, and Syria, expert consultations, and regional policy dialogue. Analysis of recent earthquakes and floods in these countries reveals that catastrophic outcomes were driven less by the hazards themselves than by governance failures-the prioritisation of elite interests over public safety, chronic underinvestment in prevention, and the politicisation of humanitarian response. While regional platforms in Doha, Qatar, and Kuwait have articulated growing consensus on the need for prevention-oriented disaster risk reduction (DRR), significant obstacles remain, including competition among states, mistrust between governments and civil society, and the structural constraints facing conflict-affected countries. The paper contributes to an emerging literature on DRR in fragile and conflict-affected settings by offering comparative analysis from across a region that remains under-represented in mainstream disaster scholarship.
Elkahlout et al. (2026) studied this question.