The Preserved Role of Emotion Prediction Errors Across Adulthood

Objectives. This study examined the role of emotion and reward prediction errors in social decision-making across adulthood and into older age. Specifically, it tested the hypotheses that valence emotion prediction errors—violations between expected and experienced valence of an experience or outcome—play a stronger role than reward prediction errors in punitive choices, and that this relationship varies by age. Methods. In a preregistered, online study, 272 participants aged 25–85 played the Ultimatum Game with computerized, age-matched partners. Participants predicted and reported their emotional responses (valence and arousal) to each offer. We used a mixed-effects logistic regression to examine the impact of valence, arousal, and reward prediction errors on punitive decisions, including interactions with age. We also examined how prediction error magnitude varied with age. Results. Valence prediction errors were significantly more predictive than reward prediction errors of punitive social decisions, regardless of age. Additionally, older age was associated with larger emotion prediction errors, contrary to expectations that affective forecasting improves with age. Discussion. The consistency of valence effects across age groups suggests robust affective mechanisms underlying choice behavior across the lifespan. Furthermore, the age-related increase in emotion prediction error magnitude may reflect age-related shifts in anticipating experiences that rely on the actions of others. This research offers new insight into affective decision-making models and underscores the importance of emotional expectation violations in understanding behavior throughout the adult lifespan.