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January 14, 2026Fractal and Fractional0 citationsOpen Access

Dynamic Analysis and Optimal Prevention Strategies for Monkeypox Spread Modeled via the Mittag–Leffler Kernel

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MYMine YurtoğluDYDilara YapışkanEBEbenezer Bonyah

Key Points

  • This research focuses on formulating effective control strategies for monkeypox to manage its spread.
  • Developed a mathematical model using the Atangana–Baleanu operator
  • Evaluated three control strategies: vaccination, treatment, and quarantine
  • Conducted numerical simulations using the Adams-type predictor–corrector method
  • Performed stability and sensitivity analysis on the model
  • Simultaneous application of vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls is most effective
  • Stability and sensitivity analyses confirm model reliability
  • Numerical simulations demonstrate cost-effectiveness of combined strategies

Abstract

Monkeypox is a viral disease belonging to the smallpox family. Although it has milder symptoms than smallpox in humans, it has become a global threat in recent years, especially in African countries. Initially, incidental immunity against monkeypox was provided by smallpox vaccines. However, the eradication of smallpox over time and thus the lack of vaccination has led to the widespread and clinical importance of monkeypox. Although mathematical epidemiology research on the disease is complementary to clinical studies, it has attracted attention in the last few years. The present study aims to discuss the indispensable effects of three control strategies such as vaccination, treatment, and quarantine to prevent the monkeypox epidemic modeled via the Atangana–Baleanu operator. The main purpose is to determine optimal control measures planned to reduce the rates of exposed and infected individuals at the minimum costs. For the controlled model, the existence-uniqueness of the solutions, stability, and sensitivity analysis, and numerical optimal solutions are exhibited. The optimal system is numerically solved using the Adams-type predictor–corrector method. In the numerical simulations, the efficacy of the vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls is evaluated in separate analyzes as single-, double-, and triple-control strategies. The results demonstrate that the most effective strategy for achieving the aimed outcome is the simultaneous application of vaccination, treatment, and quarantine controls.

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Cite This Study

Yurtoğlu et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6966f31d13bf7a6f02c00d35https://doi.org/10.3390/fractalfract10010044
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