Mathematical model to support the identification of young football players with sufficient physical fitness to join professional women's teams

The recent growth of women's football in Brazil, alongside the expansion of professional competitions, has increased the demand for young players to join elite teams. This scenario raises important questions about players’ physical readiness and the tools required to identify those capable of meeting the physical demands of professional football. This study aimed to propose a mathematical model to support the identification of young female football players with the physical fitness profile necessary to integrate professional teams. A total of 121 players participated in the study, including 88 youth and 33 professional athletes, with average ages of 15.81 ± 1.77 and 25.48 ± 5.33 years, respectively. All participants were assessed for anthropometric characteristics and physical performance. Discriminant function analysis was used to construct the model, with significance set at α<0.05. The model included four physical tests: countermovement jump (cm), 20-m sprint (s), 20-m change of direction (COD 20-m) (s), and Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Level 1 (m). COD 20-m showed the highest correlation with the discriminant scores (r = -0.855). The four variables explained 30.6% of group classification. According to the model, 26.1% of youth players demonstrated a physical profile compatible with professional standards, while 84.8% of professional players were correctly identified as belonging to the professional group based on their physical fitness. Therefore, the proposed model is a useful and complementary tool in the multifactorial process of talent identification, supporting coaches and performance staff in selecting young female players with the physical qualities required to transition into professional teams.