Modeling CO2 Emissions of a Gasoline-Powered Passenger Vehicle Using Multiple Regression

The article presents issues related to fossil fuel energy consumption and CO2 emissions from motor vehicles. It identifies the main areas of research in this field in the context of motor vehicles, namely driver behavior, fuel consumption, and OBD systems. The research sample consisted of experimental data containing records of a series of test drives conducted with a passenger vehicle equipped with a gasoline-powered internal combustion engine, collected via an OBD diagnostic interface. Three subsets related to engine operation and energy demand patterns were distinguished for the study: during vehicle start-up and low-speed driving (vehicle start-up mode), during urban driving, and during extra-urban driving. Multiple regression models were constructed for the analyzed subsets to predict CO2 emissions based on engine energy output parameters (power, load) and vehicle kinematic parameters. The developed models were subjected to detailed evaluation and mutual comparison, taking into account their predictive performance and the interpretability of the results. The analysis made it possible to identify the variables with the most substantial impact on CO2 emissions and fuel energy consumption. The models allow individual drivers to monitor and optimize vehicle energy efficiency in real-time. The extra-urban driving model achieved the highest predictive accuracy, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 19.62 g/km, which makes it suitable for real-time emission monitoring during highway driving.