This paper conducts an investigation into the application of Markov processes for optimizing the lifecycle management of pavements on the Irish national road network. Transition probability matrices (TPMs) are developed for a range of condition indicators, incorporating additional factors such as annual average daily traffic. The influence of these factors on the derived TPMs is illustrated. A methodology for updating the TPMs to facilitate consideration of the effects of incorporation of new materials, environmental management and/or of the effects of climate change and advance deterioration is considered. The research assesses the merits of employing homogeneous versus non-homogeneous Markov chains. The findings underscore the significant impact of probabilistic techniques in the domain of pavement asset management but considering budget allocation across the network for a specified time horizon.
McGowan et al. (2026) studied this question.