This study investigates the valuation dynamics of 30 publicly listed fintech firms across six Asian economies from January 2021 to December 2025. It examines how intrinsic firm-level scale (market capitalization) and extrinsic macroeconomic conditions (GDP growth) jointly influence fintech valuation ratios, as reflected in price-to-earnings (P/E), price-to-book (P/B), and price-to-sales (P/S) measures. It also identifies significant structural heterogeneity and distributional asymmetries in valuation outcomes by implementing a multi-method empirical strategy that includes a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework, two-way fixed-effects models with interaction terms, and quantile regression. The findings reveal a robust, positive long-run relationship between market capitalization and valuation multiples across all ratios, confirming that firm-level scale as reflected in market capitalization is the primary driver of market value. Critically, the analysis identifies a dual-regime landscape in the Asian fintech sector: developed markets (South Korea, Japan, and Singapore) are fundamentally firm-scale driven, where intrinsic scale is the superior predictor of valuation. In contrast, developing markets (China, India, and Indonesia) are primarily macro-growth driven, exhibiting high sensitivity to GDP growth as a macroeconomic indicator of market expansion. The quantile regression results demonstrate a winner-takes-all effect, where the impact of scale on valuation is significantly more pronounced for highly valued firms in the 75th percentile. These results challenge the efficacy of universal valuation models and provide a context-dependent navigational framework for investors, analysts, and policymakers to distinguish between structural scale and cyclical growth in the rapidly evolving Asian fintech ecosystem.
Parashar et al. (Sat,) studied this question.