A New Lens on the Sustainability of the AI Revolution

We introduce the Economic Productivity of Energy (EPE), GDP generated per unit of energy consumed, as a quantitative lens to assess the sustainability of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. Historical evidence shows that the first industrial revolution, pre-scientific in the sense that technological adoption preceded scientific understanding, initially disrupted this ratio: EPE collapsed as profits outpaced efficiency, with poorly integrated technologies, and recovered only with the rise in scientific knowledge and societal adaptation. Later industrial revolutions, such as electrification and microelectronics, grounded in established scientific theory, did not exhibit comparable declines. Today’s AI revolution, highly profitable yet energy-intensive, remains pre-scientific and may follow a similar trajectory in EPE. We combine this conceptual discussion with cross-country EPE data spanning the last three decades. We find that the advanced economies exhibit a consistent linear growth in EPE: these countries account for a large share of global GDP and energy use and are therefore expected to be most affected by the AI transition. Therefore, we advocate for regular monitoring of EPE: transparent reporting of AI-related energy use and productivity-linked incentives can expose hidden energy costs and prevent efficiency-blind economic expansion. Embedding EPE within sustainability frameworks would help align technological innovation with energy productivity, a critical condition for sustainable growth.