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January 23, 20260 citationsOpen Access

Early Warning System for Coastal Hazards in Thermaikos Gulf (Aegean Sea)

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CMChristos MakrisYAYannis AndroulidakisVKVassilis Kolovoyiannis

Key Points

  • The aim is to assess the effectiveness of an operational forecast platform in predicting coastal hazards in Thermaikos Gulf.
  • Utilized the Wave4Us Operational Forecast Platform for predictive modeling.
  • Collected data from satellite and field sources for validation.
  • Simulated coastal hazards like pollutant transport and marine heat waves.
  • Validated the accuracy of the Wave4Us outputs with actual data.
  • Demonstrated the potential of Wave4Us in supporting environmental impact assessments.
  • Identified Wave4Us as a foundational tool for developing an Early Warning System.

Abstract

Thermaikos Gulf (TG) in the northwestern Aegean Sea (east-central Mediterranean) is a data-scarce area in terms of in situ monitoring. At the same time, it is a hotspot for significant anthropogenic pressures and natural hazards (Androulidakis et al., 2024a). This situation necessitates reliable metocean forecasts. To this end, the Wave4Us (https://wave4us.web.auth.gr/) Operational Forecast Platform (OFP; Krestenitis et al., 2015; Androulidakis et al., 2025) provides high-resolution model predictions for weather conditions, ocean circulation, Sea Level Elevation (SLE), wave characteristics, and river discharges (Figure 1). Based on these, it simulates coastal hazards like pollutant transport (oil spills and nutrients), Marine Heat Waves (MHW; Androulidakis et al., 2024b) and coastal flooding. This study presents the potential of the OFP’s outputs and evaluates its predictive skill using satellite and field data, confirming its accuracy. The results highlight Wave4Us as a reliable tool for environmental impact assessment that can serve as the basis of an Early Warning System (EWS) for emergency response in the region.

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Cite This Study

Makris et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69730f59c8125b09b0d1f206https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18331112
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