Scholars have long documented disparities in students’ confidence about achieving their career goals, yet prior research often treats confidence as a function of structural advantage or individual preparation rather than an interpretive assessment of what futures feel attainable. We conceptualize career goal confidence as a judgment shaped by how students understand occupational pathways and the influences that make those pathways more or less legible. Using survey data from 2,080 undergraduates at a broad-access public research university, we examine how career goal confidence varies with the occupational goals students name and the influences they cite as shaping those interests. Although most occupational domains do not differ significantly in confidence once background and academic factors are accounted for, several domains show higher or lower confidence in ways that align with the clarity or opacity of their early career pathways. Confidence is also associated with interpretive resources: students who attribute their goals to mentors, to knowledge of day-to-day work activities, or to perceptions of occupational status report higher confidence than their peers. These findings suggest that career goal confidence reflects how students interpret the structure and meaning of the futures they imagine, highlighting the role of pathway legibility and interpretive access in the college-to-career transition.
Davis et al. (2026) studied this question.