Improving the methodology for assessing the financial stability of oil refineries in the context of unstable raw materials markets

This study analyzes the key factors determining the financial stability of Russian oil refineries amid current geopolitical and economic challenges. Particular attention is paid to the impact of international sanctions imposed in 2022, which led to export restrictions, reduced access to technology, and logistical difficulties, as well as sharp fluctuations in the ruble exchange rate. These, in turn, had a significant negative impact on refining volumes, product costs, and investment activity at oil refineries. The role of several regulatory changes, in particular the temporary ban on petroleum product exports and new mechanisms to stimulate modernization, is also analyzed. In the context of today's highly dynamic market and increasing external economic and environmental risks, traditional methods for assessing the financial stability of oil refineries demonstrate significant limitations. Therefore, the authors propose a methodological revision of the analytical toolkit, including the introduction of three specialized coefficients: export dependence, resilience to price fluctuations, and environmental responsibility. These indicators allow for a more complete and comprehensive characterization of the financial condition of enterprises, taking into account both internal operational factors and external challenges associated with market volatility and stricter environmental requirements. The practical significance of the developed approach lies in its ability to facilitate the development of more adaptive management decisions and strategies aimed at increasing competitiveness and reducing the vulnerability of refineries in unstable conditions. Thus, the integration of quantitative and qualitative parameters for assessing financial stability becomes a key element in ensuring the long-term stability and development of the industry. The obtained results can serve not only as a theoretical basis for further scientific research but also as a practical tool for enterprise managers and relevant governing bodies in formulating effective policies for the sustainable development of the Russian oil refining industry.