Characteristics and Driving Mechanisms of Net Ecosystem Productivity in a Subtropical Moso Bamboo Forest Based on XGBoost

As a critical agroforestry crop in Southern China, Moso bamboo, maintains regional timber security and bamboo shoot production, with its net ecosystem productivity (NEP) directly determining dry matter accumulation and economic yield. This study integrates 2024 continuous flux observations with XGBoost and SHAP explanations to characterize the subtropical bamboo forest carbon budget and its nonlinear driving mechanisms. The results show a weak carbon sink in 2024 with an annual cumulative NEP of 120 g C m−2, as high respiration of 860 g C m−2 limited organic matter conversion by consuming nearly 88% of the 980 g C m−2 total primary production. The peak production period during May and June was offset by growth stagnation in August, caused by extreme heat and drought. Net radiation served as the primary driver, with a positive contribution threshold of 75.28 W m−2, whereas precipitation exceeding 1.85 mm or air temperatures over 17.85 °C hindered carbon accumulation through radiation attenuation and metabolic heat loss. Strong radiation–precipitation interactions confirm that water’s impacts on yield are deeply contingent upon radiation backgrounds. These nonlinear regulatory pathways provide a scientific foundation for stabilizing bamboo forest productivity through synergistic water-radiation management and structural optimization during extreme climate events.