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February 6, 2026European Heart Journal0 citations

Prediction capacity of different anthropometric measures for hypertension through a 15-year prospective study

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PPPei PanYYY J YangSHS He

Key Result

Cardiometabolic index (HR 1.944; 95% CI 1.381-2.738) and other adiposity indices independently predicted incident hypertension over 15 years, but had lower discriminatory power than waist circumference.

Key Points

  • The aim is to determine which anthropometric measures can predict future hypertension over a 15-year period.
  • Conducted a 15-year follow-up study with 597 individuals.
  • Collected anthropometric and biochemical data in 1992 and 2007.
  • Applied Cox’s proportional hazards regression models to analyze data.
  • Assessed discriminatory power using Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve.
  • 265 participants developed hypertension during the follow-up.
  • Cardiometabolic index had a significant hazard ratio of 1.944 per SD (p < 0.001).
  • Waist circumference showed the highest predictive power with an AUC of 0.649.
  • Body mass index and waist-to-height ratio followed closely in predictive ability.

Study Design

Type

Cohort (n=597)

Structured PICO

Do novel anthropometric indices (cardiometabolic index, visceral adiposity index, dysfunctional adiposity index, body adiposity index) predict incident hypertension better than traditional measures (waist circumference, body mass index)?

P
Population
597 individuals followed for 15 years to assess anthropometric predictors of incident hypertension.
E
Exposure
Anthropometric measures (cardiometabolic index, visceral adiposity index, dysfunctional adiposity index, body adiposity index, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio, body mass index)
O
Outcome
Incident hypertensionhard clinical

Traditional anthropometric measures like waist circumference and BMI remain superior to novel adiposity indices for predicting incident hypertension over a 15-year period.

Main Result

Hazard Ratio: 1.944 (95% CI 1.381–2.738)

p-value: p=< 0.001

Abstract

Abstract Aim To investigate whether cardiometabolic index,visceral adiposity index, dysfunctional adiposity index and body adiposity index compared with waist circumference and body mass index could predict future hypertension in a 15-year prospective study. Methods The data were collected in 1992 and recollected in 2007 from the same group of 597 individuals. Anthropometric indices and biochemical data were obtained. Cox’s proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios of anthropometric measures. The discriminatory power of anthropometric measures for incident hypertension were assessed by Receiver Operating characteristic Curve. Results During follow-up, 265 participants were newly diagnosed with hypertension. In multivariable Cox regression analysis after adjusting potential for confounders, cardiometabolic index HR: 1.944 (95% CI: 1.381–2.738) per SD; P 0.001, visceral adiposity index HR: 1.499 (95% CI: 1.068–2.104) per SD; P =0.019, dysfunctional adiposity index HR: 1.422 (95% CI: 1.017–1.990) per SD; P =0.040, body adiposity index HR: 1.864 (95% CI: 1.297–2.678) per SD; P =0.001, waist circumference HR: 2.432 (95% CI: 1.670–3.543) per SD; P 0.001, waist-to-height ratio HR: 2.515 (95% CI: 1.746–3.622) per SD; P 0.001 and body mass index HR: 2.523 (95% CI: 1.773–3.592) per SD; P 0.001 were significantly associated with incident hypertension. Additionally, waist circumference product had the highest AUC at 0.649 (95% CI: 0.605–0.693), followed by body mass index at 0.648 (95% CI: 0.603–0.692) and waist-to-height ratio at 0.646 (95% CI: 0.601–0.690) then by cardiometabolic index at 0.603 (95% CI: 0.557–0.649). Conclusions Cardiometabolic index,visceral adiposity index, dysfunctional adiposity index and body adiposity index were independent predictors of future hypertension. The discriminatory power of these indexes product for hypertension prediction were lower than that of waist circumference and body mass index.

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Cite This Study

Pan et al. (2025) conducted a cohort in hypertension (n=597). Anthropometric measures (cardiometabolic index, visceral adiposity index, dysfunctional adiposity index, body adiposity index) vs. waist circumference and body mass index was evaluated on incident hypertension (HR 1.944, 95% CI 1.381-2.738, p=< 0.001). Cardiometabolic index (HR 1.944; 95% CI 1.381-2.738) and other adiposity indices independently predicted incident hypertension over 15 years, but had lower discriminatory power than waist circumference.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698585678f7c464f23008bd3https://doi.org/10.1093/eurheartj/ehaf784.3413
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