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February 8, 2026Nature Climate Change3 citations

Expert agreement on key elements of transformational adaptation to climate risks

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RBRobbert BiesbroekDEDore EngbersenJBJetske Bonenkamp

Key Points

  • This research aims to identify and establish consensus on key elements of transformational adaptation to climate risks among experts.
  • Employs a three-round Delphi study
  • Engages a global panel of experts
  • Assesses differences across expert types and geographical focus
  • Broad agreement on 13 critical elements of transformational adaptation
  • Identified elements include climate resilience, distributive justice, and time-horizon
  • Notable differences in value placed on elements by expert subgroups

Abstract

Transformational adaptation (TA) to climate risks has gained broad interest. While existing case studies and frameworks discuss key dimensions and elements that constitute TA to distinguish it from ‘business as usual’ or ‘incremental’ adaptation, a universally accepted definition of the concept remains elusive. Here we used a three-round Delphi study with experts from across the globe, to ascertain the level of agreement on key elements of TA, and to assess differences across expert types, geographical focus and administrative levels. We find broad agreement on 13 elements that are important in a definition of TA: root causes, climate resilience, time-horizon, diversity of knowledge, depth of change, distributive justice, context specificity, multiscale, restructuring, persistence, maladaptation, avoiding lock-ins and systemic change. However, notable differences exist in what expert subgroups value as important elements. Clarifying what TA entails is crucial for developing effective policies and strategies, ensuring meaningful progress in addressing climate change.

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Cite This Study

Biesbroek et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6987eb5df6bacdd2fe8fc8e0https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02548-y
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