Climate projections for the Mediterranean area indicate a rise in temperature and an increase in drought frequency, which directly impact water availability and consequently, ecosystems. In the protected area of Montesinho in northeast Portugal, sheep and goat pastoralism characterizes the landscape and plays an important socio-economic role. However, like in many regions of the globe, this historical activity is becoming increasingly unsustainable due to shifting climatic conditions. To understand the impact of climate change on water availability in the park and its consequences for small ruminant pastoralism, trends in rainfall and temperature were analyzed using historical climate data from 1951 to 2022, and semi-structured interviews with local shepherds provided insight into their perceptions on this matter. We used TWI and NDVI to map relative moisture and green forage patterns underlying shepherds’ grazing-route decisions. Findings revealed a decrease in precipitation during winter and spring, with a significant increase during autumn months, and local knowledge revealed a focus on drying springs and shifts in seasonal patterns that led to pastoral adaptations like adjusting grazing routes and increasing reliance on alternative water sources. This study concluded that pastoralism in this region faces significant climatic challenges, highlighting the need to implement adaptive strategies to improve the livelihood of these communities and increase their resilience in a fast-changing environment. Large-scale aid and locally addressed actions, such as improving water infrastructures and promoting drought-tolerant vegetation growth, are key to the long-term sustainability of this ancient practice.
Oliveira et al. (2026) studied this question.