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February 8, 2026Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems0 citationsOpen Access

Overview of the Nephele Perturbed Parameter Ensemble for Aerosol‐Cloud Interactions in E3SMv3

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JNJ. M. NugentHBHunter BrownAKAndrew C. Kirby

Key Points

  • This research aims to understand aerosol-cloud interactions and how they affect climate sensitivity in the E3SMv3 model.
  • Generated a perturbed parameter ensemble by altering 25 parameters related to aerosol-cloud interactions.
  • Integrated the model using both present-day and preindustrial aerosol emissions across 250 model members.
  • Characterized effective radiative forcing values due to aerosol-cloud interactions.
  • Effective radiative forcing values due to aerosol-cloud interactions ranged from -3.0 to +0.9 W m−2.
  • Some simulated positive forcing values were found to be implausible due to unrealistic energy fluxes.
  • Cloud droplet number concentration consistently increased, while cloud liquid water path showed both increases and decreases.

Abstract

Abstract Aerosol‐cloud interactions (aci) are the leading source of uncertainty in inferring climate sensitivity from the historical record. Earth system models (ESMs) struggle to represent aci because the processes responsible for these phenomena occur at much finer time and space scales than can be resolved by any ESM. Observational constraints provide key benchmarks to test ESMs, but cannot be used alone to fully understand aci processes except in very specific cases where causality is controlled; some degree of modeling is required to infer aci and estimate radiative forcing. Here, we generate and characterize a perturbed parameter ensemble (PPE) in version 3 of the Energy Exascale ESM (E3SMv3). We perturb 25 parameters that govern aci processes over 250 members and integrate the model over present‐day and preindustrial aerosol emissions. We find that the process representation in E3SMv3 is flexible and can generate global‐mean effective radiative forcings due to aci (ERFaci) ranging from −3.0 to +0.9 W m − 2 . The positive ERFaci values simulated by a portion of the PPE are implausible and result from parameter combinations that produce unrealistic top‐of‐atmosphere energy fluxes. While global‐mean cloud droplet number concentration always increases in response to anthropogenic aerosol, cloud liquid water path can both increase and decrease, suggesting that precipitation suppression is not the only aerosol‐cloud adjustment represented by E3SMv3. Analysis of which processes control liquid cloud adjustment in the PPE points toward stratiform precipitation processes and aerosol activation, which is consistent with many previous ESMs, as well as the new two‐moment convective cloud microphysics in E3SMv3.

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Cite This Study

Nugent et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/698828ab0fc35cd7a884851dhttps://doi.org/10.1029/2025ms004989
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