Mapping climate vulnerability to support climate adaptation in maize farming systems in Kenya

Abstract A systematic knowledge of climate vulnerability distribution within a country is important to design informed climate change adaptation planning which will contribute to food security. We used a vulnerability index for maize farming-related hazards, which combines both biophysical and socio-economic factors for Kenya at a disaggregated level. These factors include: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity (capacity of a system to adapt to shocks) related to maize farming. We show that high-yield maize zones have high climate sensitivity, which is inversely related to exposure. In contrast, adaptive capacity on maize farms is highly variable across counties of Kenya. We found that most counties in Kenya have a low potential impact of climate change on maize farming suggesting resilience to hazards that affect maize farms. Sensitivity analysis of the vulnerability index, which we propose in this work, suggests that adaptive capacity has the highest influence on vulnerability. This study emphasises the need to disaggregate climate vulnerability assessments in order to address key food crops, on which in turn, hazard-adaptation instruments can be targeted. The vulnerability index proposed in this work therefore provides a basis for climate adaptation recommendations at a localised scale, which can be used by policymakers and practitioners.