Modeling the Coupling Relationship Between Crop Rotation Ratio and Planting Structure in China’s Black Soil Region: Implications for Sustainable Land Governance

Strengthening cropping patterns and crop planting structure policies is significant for ensuring sustainable agriculture, with broader implications for food security and cultivated land quality conservation. In this context, enhancing the crop rotation project in China’s Black Soil region requires exploring the coupling relationship between the rotation ratio and crop planting structure. Selecting China’s Black Soil region as a case study, this paper presents an equation-based model to determine regional rotation probabilities for the years 2020 to 2021. The Tupu method of geo-information analysis is utilized to explore the characteristics of crop planting structures and rotations. Furthermore, the study explored the relationship between the rotation ratio and crop planting structure, with rotation probability serving as a mediator. The results revealed that corn had a significant impact on the crop planting structure due to its prevalence in continuous cropping. The area dedicated to corn and soybean rotation accounted for only 12.09%. Additionally, correlation analysis showed that a more balanced cropping ratio results in a higher rotation ratio. Therefore, this research suggests that increasing the subsidy standard for crops in relatively low areas and allocating rotation indicators from south to north may help improve the regional rotation ratio in the Black Soil region. These insights should guide policy formulation and implementation to promote sustainable agricultural practices and optimize the rotation policy in China’s Black Soil region.