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February 21, 2026Journal of Hydrology Regional StudiesOpen Access

Long-term hydrological dynamics and water balance in the Upper Indus Basin: Insights from a process-based model

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Authors

MUMuhammad UmerTWTaihua WangDYDawen Yang

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Overview

Process-based modeling examines water balance changes in the Upper Indus Basin, suggesting significant hydrological shifts under climate change.

Key Points

  • This research aims to understand long-term hydrological responses in the Upper Indus Basin, focusing on climate change impacts.
  • Utilized the Geomorphology-Based Hydrological Model (GBHM) for simulations.
  • Analyzed hydrological processes from 1951 to 2019.
  • Conducted trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and runoff.
  • Performed elevation-based analysis of runoff generation across four zones.
  • The UIB experienced a mean annual precipitation of 718 mm and annual runoff of 513 mm.
  • Statistically significant increases in annual precipitation (+1.39 mm yr⁻¹) and temperature (+0.013 °C yr⁻¹) were identified.
  • Snowmelt and glacier melt contributed approximately 65% of total annual river runoff.
  • Runoff generation peaked near 5000 m elevation, with differing responses in higher glacierized zones.

Cite This Study

Umer et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/69994bef873532290d02009chttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2026.103259
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