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February 22, 2026Japanese Journal of JSCE0 citations

Probability Discharge Distribution and Characteristics in Kurose River Basin

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HNHirotaka NAKANOTUTatsuhiko UCHIDASKShokei KANETO

Key Points

  • The study aims to analyze the probability discharge characteristics using rainfall data in the Kurose River Basin.
  • Developed an RRI model for hydrological analysis using 47 years of rainfall data.
  • Calculated probability discharge from maximum annual flow at specific locations in the river basin.
  • Converted probability flow rates to specific flow rates and organized data with soil parameters.
  • Demonstrated that probability flow rates could be derived by multiplying specific flow rates by the catchment area when soil parameters are consistent.
  • Quantitatively showed increased flow rates in urban areas due to decreased void ratios underground.
  • Indicated that probability flow rates at confluence points were nearly equal to the sum of flow rates before confluence.

Abstract

黒瀬川流域を対象にRRIモデルを構築し,47年間の降雨データを用いて流出解析を行った.本川上の2.5k毎および支川合流部の各年最大流量から確率流量を算出した.本川では,これを比流量に換算し土質パラメータの平均値と併せて分布を整理した.確率流量は,土質パラメータが概ね一定の区間では確率年の比流量に流域面積を乗じて算出できることを示した.また,市街地では地中の空隙量が低減するために流量が増加することを定量的に示した.支川合流部では,合流後の確率流量は合流前の本支川流量の和にほぼ等しい結果となった.各洪水イベントの流量分布でも同様の結果となったことから,黒瀬川流域においては洪水到達時間の影響よりも土地利用の影響の方が強く,市街地浸透対策と流量特性に基づく河川整備が効果的であることが示唆された.

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Cite This Study

NAKANO et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699a9cc6482488d673cd2754https://doi.org/10.2208/jscejj.25-16058
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