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February 24, 2026Journal of Public Affairs0 citations

Measuring the Impact of Inflation and GDP Growth on the Gini Index: Panel Data Evidence From Beta Regression Models

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MDMárcio Alves DinizPGPatrícia Balthazar GarciaGPGustavo Henrique de Araujo Pereira

Key Points

  • The research aims to evaluate various linear and beta regression models for analyzing the Gini index and income distribution.
  • Comparison of linear models (pooled, fixed effects, random effects) with beta regression models.
  • Utilization of hypothesis tests (Chow, Breusch-Pagan, Hausman) for model appropriateness.
  • Assessment of model fit using R² and pseudo-R² metrics.
  • Fixed effects and random effects models outperform pooled data models.
  • Empirical findings show random effects yield similar outcomes as beta regression models.
  • Beta regression models demonstrate better fit for capturing nuances in income distribution.

Abstract

ABSTRACT This paper examines the adequacy of various linear and generalized linear models in analyzing income distribution, specifically focusing on the Gini index, which is constrained within the (0,1) interval. We compare traditional linear models, including pooled, fixed effects, and random effects approaches, with beta regression models that are better suited for data bounded between 0 and 1. Hypothesis tests—Chow, Breusch‐Pagan, and Hausman—are employed to determine the appropriateness of these models, revealing that fixed effects and random effects models are preferable over pooled data models. While beta regression models offer a theoretically sound approach due to their alignment with the bounded nature of the Gini index, empirical results show that the random effects models (both linear and beta) yield similar numerical outcomes for the covariates. This suggests that linear models, despite their simplicity, provide a comparably effective description of the data. Additionally, the analysis of R 2 and pseudo‐ R 2 metrics highlights the superior fit of beta regression models, suggesting their greater effectiveness in capturing the nuances of income distribution. The paper's novel contribution lies in its direct empirical comparison of beta regression and traditional panel data models in the context of income distribution, an area where such comparative analysis has been limited. Policy implications highlight that while inflation control and GDP growth are necessary, they are not sufficient to reduce inequality, calling for long‐term, multifaceted interventions. Future research should expand the dataset to include more variables and countries to validate these findings.

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Cite This Study

Diniz et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/699d3fc8de8e28729cf6483bhttps://doi.org/10.1002/pa.70118
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