Background/Objectives: Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a chronic autoimmune disorder characterized by persistent synovial inflammation and vascular abnormalities. Emerging evidence suggests that dysbiosis of the microbiome contributes to the pathogenesis of this disease, while seasonal and meteorological variations represent significant factors influencing microbial community dynamics. However, the specific pathological mechanisms mediated by microbial populations within knee joint effusions of RA patients remain poorly elucidated. The present study employs 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing technology to characterize seasonal variation patterns affecting microbial communities in knee joint effusions of RA patients and to investigate the relationship between microbial community structures and climatic lag effects. Methods: Microbial communities in knee joint effusion samples obtained from RA patients were analyzed using 16S rRNA high-throughput sequencing methodologies. A Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) was applied to quantify the delayed effects of climatic variables on microbial community composition. The correlation patterns between meteorological parameters and community structure were elucidated through the integration of ridge regression and redundancy analysis (RDA). Preliminary identification of potential biomarkers was conducted using random forest algorithms. Results: According to research findings, the microbial composition of knee joint effusions in RA patients shows seasonal fluctuation patterns that are compatible with those seen in RA patients, even though there is no discernible seasonal change in β-diversity. Compared with samples obtained during other seasons, spring specimens exhibited significantly elevated relative abundances of both beneficial microorganisms and opportunistic pathogenic taxa. Random forest modeling identified Escherichia-Shigella and Curtobacterium as preliminary candidate biomarkers; however, external validation is required to establish their specificity as disease indicators. Further analysis revealed that although short-term meteorological fluctuations exert minimal influence on overall microbial diversity, specific alterations in mean wind speed (MWS) and relative humidity (RH) drive compositional changes in the microbial community, manifested as rapid responses from dominant bacterial taxa and compensatory buffering effects from rare taxa. Conclusions: This study suggests that the synovial cavity microbiota in RA patients may exhibit seasonal variation patterns that are statistically associated with environmental parameters, particularly humidity and temperature. Due to the inherent limitations of the cross-sectional study design, the preliminary candidate biomarkers identified herein require validation through external cohorts. Additional investigations incorporating healthy controls and osteoarthritis (OA) cohorts are necessary to confirm specificity and to elucidate the therapeutic potential of these microbial targets for RA microbiome interventions. Currently, insufficient evidence exists to establish causal relationships among microbial populations, joint pathology, and climatic factors. Longitudinal cohort studies are imperative to validate the temporal dynamics and clinical significance of these associations.
Qi et al. (2026) studied this question.