Assessing the Relationship Between Erosion Risk, Climate Change and Archaeological Heritage: Medieval Sites in the Basilicata Region, Italy

Climate change has among its effects the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters, such as landslides, floods, erosion and fires, with clear implications on both natural and anthropic hazards and risks. These natural phenomenapose a growing threat to archaeological heritage through increased rates of soil erosion, flooding, and landslides. This study presents a multidisciplinary approach to assess the erosion risk affecting medieval rural settlements in the Basilicata Region of Southern Italy. This area is characterised by high-impact natural phenomena that have influenced settlement patterns in the past. The focus is on rural settlements that arose during the Middle Ages, some of which were abandoned as early as the late Middle Ages. This study has the dual objective of analysing the natural causes that may have led to the abandonment of many sites in ancient times and producing a predictive multi-risk map of the possible loss of cultural heritage sites. By integrating archaeological data, remote sensing, historical sources, and geospatial modelling, a multi-risk map was developed to identify areas at the highest risk. The results demonstrate the urgent need for proactive conservation strategies in the face of ongoing climatic change.