What does this research mean for the field?

Canadian mortgage holders increase their credit utilization and miss payments on consumer credit products up to two years before their first mortgage delinquency. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.NOVEL_FINDING. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

The research aims to explore how Canadian borrowers exhibit behavioral changes before experiencing mortgage delinquency.

February 28, 2026Open Access

Consumers’ Path to Mortgage Delinquency

Key Points

The research aims to explore how Canadian borrowers exhibit behavioral changes before experiencing mortgage delinquency.
Analyzed TransUnion borrower credit data from 2015 to 2024
Monitored credit utilization trends among mortgage holders
Documented payment patterns on various consumer credit products
Borrowers start increasing credit utilization two years prior to mortgage delinquency
Households begin missing payments on credit cards one to two years before becoming delinquent
The rate of missed payments accelerates in the last six months before delinquency

Abstract

This paper examines the behavioural patterns of Canadian borrowers as they progress toward mortgage delinquency. Using the full universe of TransUnion borrower credit data from 2015 to 2024, we document that mortgage holders begin increasing their credit utilization roughly two years before their first mortgage delinquency. One to two years before becoming late on their mortgage, households frequently begin missing payments on various consumer credit products, particularly credit cards. This pattern accelerates markedly in the final six months leading up to mortgage delinquency. These empirical patterns provide a consistent and robust set of early warning signals that can be used to monitor emerging household financial stress.

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