Conventional food security strategies have largely been formulated under assumptions of population growth, abundant agricultural labor, and stable global trade. However, many advanced economies—particularly in East Asia—are entering a shrinking-society context characterized by population decline, rapid aging, and regional depopulation. This paper argues that demographic shrinkage should be understood not as a peripheral trend but as a landscape-level structural pressure that destabilizes incumbent agri-food systems. Drawing on the Multi-Level Perspective (MLP), the study conceptualizes demographic shrinkage as a cumulative force that erodes the labor base, productive capacity, and institutional stability of food systems, thereby weakening regime path dependence. Building on this framework, it advances Food Security 3.0 as a theory-driven contribution to sustainability research. Food Security 3.0 reconceptualizes food security under shrinkage conditions as a problem of systemic resilience rather than production expansion or import diversification, and theorizes food technology—including smart and automated agriculture, alternative proteins, and AI-enabled supply chains—as transitional infrastructure enabling regime reconfiguration under structural constraints. By integrating demographic change, socio-technical transitions, and governance, the study reframes food security as a question of resilience-oriented system design, strategic self-reliance, and integrated food-system governance. While anchored in the East Asian experience, the framework offers theoretical and policy-relevant insights for shrinking societies confronting overlapping demographic, climatic, and geopolitical pressures.
Li et al. (Fri,) studied this question.